Netanyahu Signals End of Intense Fighting in Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that the phase of "intense fighting" against Hamas in Gaza is nearing its conclusion. However, the absence of clear plans for the next stage of Israel’s campaign has raised concerns among both Palestinians and Israelis. There is growing fear that the conflict may evolve into prolonged insurgency-style warfare and an indefinite occupation.

Ground Offensive Concludes

Israel’s generals are expected to soon announce the end of the last main ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, particularly in the southern city of Rafah. Despite this, Netanyahu has emphasized that the war will continue until Israel achieves "total victory," which he defines as the complete eradication of Hamas as both a civilian and military entity.

Unfulfilled Objectives and Continued Fighting

Nine months into a campaign initially planned to conclude by January, several of the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) declared objectives remain unfulfilled. New fighting continues to erupt in areas supposedly under Israeli military control. Recently, an Israeli strike on a school in central Gaza reportedly killed at least 16 people and wounded over 50, according to the Palestinian health ministry. The IDF stated the strike targeted gunmen operating nearby, with precautions taken to minimize civilian casualties.

Stalled Ceasefire Talks and Postwar Plans

Ceasefire and hostage release talks have stalled repeatedly despite tentative progress last week. The Israeli government faces significant domestic and international pressure to release its postwar proposals for Gaza. However, details of these plans remain undisclosed, with one Israeli observer describing them as "fantasies."

Military Presence and Strategic Control

Public statements from Israeli officials suggest that two army divisions will remain in Gaza in the next phase of Israel’s war plan. One division will be stationed on the newly created Netzarim corridor, dividing the northern and southern parts of the strip. The other will be based along the Philadelphi corridor, along the Gaza-Egypt border, to shut down Hamas’s tunnel networks and smuggling routes.

"Mowing the Grass" Strategy

These troops will conduct frequent raids on suspected Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad targets across Gaza, employing a strategy known as "mowing the grass," already used in the West Bank. Israel has approached Arab states like Egypt and the UAE to discuss forming a security force for Gaza postwar, but support has been tepid.

Buffer Zones and Land Expropriation

The buffer zone between the separation fence and Israel is expected to expand to at least one kilometer in depth across the entire territory. Satellite imagery analysis by Gisha, a nonprofit organization focused on Palestinians’ right to freedom of movement, indicates that the buffer zone and military-use corridors could total 32% of Gaza’s territory. This expropriation affects much of Gaza’s agricultural land, already insufficient for its 2.3 million residents.

Abandoned Plans for Palestinian Authority Return

Initial US-backed plans to reinstate the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) to govern Gaza have been abandoned. The PA, lacking political legitimacy after 18 years without elections, has refused to return to Gaza "aboard an Israeli tank."

Local Administration and "Bubbles" Strategy

Israel is reportedly close to reimplementing a previously failed plan from early in the conflict involving "bubbles" run by local leaders with no Hamas ties. These vetted figures would administer aid distribution and potentially expand into civilian governance. However, similar attempts six months ago resulted in the execution of several clan heads by Hamas.

Long-Term Control and Uncertain Future

Experts like Michael Milshtein of Tel Aviv University argue that Israeli decision-makers must either commit to controlling all of Gaza, with its financial, military, and legal implications or prepare for a painful deal likely allowing Hamas to remain in power. Milshtein asserts that Israel lacks the willingness and capacity to occupy Gaza entirely, leaving no good options.