Ukrainian sources have reported that thousands of troops have been deployed in an incursion into Russia’s Kursk province. This development comes amid escalating tensions, with both Moscow and Kyiv exchanging blame for a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, located 250 miles to the south.
Ukraine’s Surprise Attack
A Ukrainian security official, speaking to Agence France-Presse, stated that the goal of the incursion was to destabilize Russia and stretch its military forces through swift, mobile attacks. However, the long-term sustainability of this operation remains uncertain, especially in light of Russian threats to counter it with reserves. Russia initially claimed that several hundred Ukrainian soldiers launched a surprise attack on Tuesday, but the Ukrainian official countered, indicating that the actual number was significantly higher, with thousands of troops involved. When asked if more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers were participating, the official confirmed, “It is a lot more … Thousands.”
Multiple Ukrainian brigades are reportedly taking part in the operation, which appears to have caught Russia off guard. Ukrainian forces struck a lightly defended area that had seen little significant combat since the spring of 2022, breaking through minimal border defences.
"We are on the offensive," said the Ukrainian security official, who requested anonymity. "The aim is to stretch the enemy's positions, inflict maximum losses, and destabilize the situation in Russia, as they are unable to protect their border."
Later on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy revealed that Russia had launched nearly 2,000 cross-border strikes on Ukraine’s Sumy region from Kursk over the summer. He stated that these attacks, which included artillery, mortar, drone, and missile strikes, warranted a response from Ukraine. "Each such strike deserves a fair response," Zelenskiy said in his nightly address.
Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers have reported that fighting is occurring as deep as 20 kilometres (12 miles) into the Kursk region. This has raised questions about why Ukraine was able to penetrate the area so easily. A video posted by "I Want to Live," a project linked to Ukraine’s military intelligence, allegedly showed a few dozen Russian soldiers, including fighters from Chechnya, who were reportedly captured in Kursk. However, Reuters noted that it could not independently verify the video.
Zelenskiy’s Allegation.
In a separate social media post, Zelenskiy accused Russian forces of starting a fire in one of the cooling towers at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been under Russian control since the early days of the war. "Radiation levels are within the norm," Zelenskiy stated while accusing Russia of using its control of the site, where six reactors remain in shutdown mode, to "blackmail Ukraine, all of Europe, and the world."
A Ukrainian official in Nikopol, the town closest to the nuclear plant across the Dnipro River, suggested that the fire might have been caused by setting a large number of automobile tyres on fire in a cooling tower. Meanwhile, Evgeny Balitsky, a Russian-installed official in the occupied south of Ukraine, blamed Ukrainian forces for the fire, claiming it was the result of shelling in the nearby city of Enerhodar, which was captured by Russia shortly after its invasion in February 2022.
IAEA Comment
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that there had been no impact on nuclear safety at the site. Video and photos showed smoke rising dramatically from one of the towers, though experts pointed out that the towers are not currently in use while the reactor remains in shutdown mode. This led to speculation that the fire might be an attempt to escalate tensions following Ukraine’s incursion into Russia. Late Sunday night, Russia's state nuclear energy company, Rosatom, reported that the main fire had been extinguished, while Russian and Ukrainian authorities confirmed that one of the cooling towers had been damaged.
There has been speculation that Ukraine might attempt to capture a Russian nuclear power plant at Kurchatov near Kursk, but the facility is over 30 miles from the current fighting, making such an operation unlikely. Ukraine’s leadership has provided little information about the incursion's objectives. However, it is widely believed to be intended to relieve pressure on the eastern Donbas front, where Russian forces have been making slow advances. The incursion is also seen as a demonstration to Russia and Ukraine's Western allies that Kyiv can conduct successful offensive operations.
Russia’s defence ministry has claimed to have repelled attacks by Ukrainian “mobile groups” in three villages north and east of Korenevo – Tolpino, Zhuravli, and Obshchiy Kolodez – located 15 to 18 miles from the border. These are the farthest points at which Moscow has acknowledged the incursion.
A video released by a pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel shows soldiers raising a flag over a building in the Russian village of Guevo, located just a few miles inside the Russian border and seven miles south of Sudzha, one of the first towns reached during the recent incursion. On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy publicly acknowledged the incursion into the Kursk region—marking the first time Kyiv's regular forces have launched an attack inside Russia since the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The conflict has escalated further, with fifteen people injured in Kursk, according to the acting regional governor, Alexei Smirnov. The injuries occurred after debris from a missile hit an apartment building. Zakharova claimed that Ukrainian forces had launched a "massive missile strike" on the city, with one missile managing to get through, causing casualties.
Russia Counter Attack Plan.
Russia's military response appears to rely on a mix of conscript border guards, regional forces, and units "redeployed from lower-priority frontline areas in Ukraine," according to an overnight analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The ISW noted that this strategy could further disorganize Russia's response to the incursion. The think tank also suggested that leadership of the effort to repel the Ukrainian incursion had likely passed to Russia’s FSB internal security agency after the Kremlin declared the situation a "counter-terrorism operation" on Friday. Under Russian federal law, the military is subordinated to the head of the counter-terrorism operation.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, an overnight missile attack near Kyiv killed a man and his four-year-old son, according to emergency services. Explosions were heard in the centre and east of Kyiv on Saturday night after Ukraine’s air force reported that two Russian missiles were heading towards the city.
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